Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.