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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the current race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still