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With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season with incredible momentum.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a campaign - he found the net 11 times in his initial seven matches in two seasons ago and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Naturally, physical problems might significantly impact in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the honor so early in the season.

First, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, equally significant, the total and standard of opportunities he's receiving.

And second, the modest opening his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the total and standard of opportunities he's received.

This doesn't represent a statistic haphazardly selected by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

And if we look at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this term from open play, the Norway forward is receiving significantly more quality chances to find the net than every other footballer.

In fact, even if Haaland didn't excel at finishing chances than anyone else in the league, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as all other players.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by breaking down the number and quality of chances that footballers have received in the top flight so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, a dozen more than every other footballer.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had in fact attempted more non-spot-kick efforts at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

What's particularly exceptional even for Haaland is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This number represents is that attackers have typically netted the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Of players to take at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - thanks to a several close-range conversions against the Hammers and Seagulls.

Haaland's xG of 0.27 per shot is much higher than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

Essentially, the chances he has had in this campaign have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so powerfully is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. Following seven matches last term he had scored 10 goals - four more than any other player and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Anfield star who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, a touchdown more than the Manchester City striker.

During the current term, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this juncture last term.

In fact this has been the quietest start to a English top-flight campaign the Egyptian attacker has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has started slowly either. Upon reviewing at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last term, Haaland has scored as many goals as the remaining ten footballers collectively so far.

Be it because of physical problems - several key attackers - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or simply because their teams have struggled (several proven attackers), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Even as Haaland seems the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the Continental scoring award that is presented to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That race is significantly tighter at this opening period because two world-class strikers have likewise begun in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions each.

The fact Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the greatest expected goals of the trio despite not attempting any from the penalty spot positions him as the likely winner.

Yet given that the two continental superstars are some of the most excellent finishers in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the competition remains open.