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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the series may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that train approaching, coming around the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.