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T respite following the ceasefire in Gaza is profound. Across Israel, the release of surviving detainees has led to broad celebration. Across Palestinian territories, festivities have commenced as up to 2,000 Palestinian prisoners start to be released – although anguish persists due to uncertainty about which prisoners are returning and where they will be sent. Throughout Gaza's northern regions, people can now reenter search the debris for the remains of an estimated 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Ceasefire Emergence Contrary to Prior Uncertainty

Just three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire appeared remote. But it has come into force, and on Monday Donald Trump travelled from Jerusalem, where he was applauded in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he attended a high-powered peace conference of in excess of 20 world leaders, among them Sir Keir Starmer. The peace initiative begun there is scheduled to proceed at a assembly in the UK. The US president, acting with international partners, did make this deal take place – contrary to, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dreams of Independence Qualified by Past Precedents

Aspirations that the deal represents the opening phase toward Palestinian statehood are understandable – but, considering historical precedent, rather hopeful. It lacks a transparent trajectory to sovereignty for Palestinians and risks dividing, for the foreseeable future, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the total ruin this war has caused. The lack of any schedule for Palestinian self-determination in the presidential proposal contradicts self-aggrandizing allusions, in his Knesset speech, to the “historic dawn” of a “golden age”.

Donald Trump was unable to refrain from sowing division and individualizing the deal in his speech.

In a period of relief – with the hostage release, truce and renewal of aid – he chose to recast it as a ethical drama in which he exclusively reclaimed Israel’s prestige after supposed disloyalty by past US commanders-in-chief Obama and Biden. This even as the Biden administration a year ago having undertaken a similar deal: a truce tied to humanitarian access and future political talks.

Genuine Autonomy Crucial for Sustainable Agreement

A initiative that withholds one side meaningful agency cannot yield sustainable agreement. The ceasefire and aid trucks are to be welcomed. But this is still not policy development. Without mechanisms ensuring Palestinian participation and control over their own organizations, any deal risks perpetuating subjugation under the discourse of peace.

Humanitarian Priorities and Reconstruction Challenges

Gaza’s people crucially depend on emergency support – and food and medicines must be the first priority. But rebuilding must not be delayed. Among 60 million tonnes of rubble, Palestinians need assistance restoring homes, educational facilities, hospitals, religious buildings and other institutions devastated by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s transitional administration to thrive, financial support must be disbursed rapidly and protection voids be filled.

Similar to a large portion of Mr Trump’s peace plan, references to an international stabilisation force and a suggested “diplomatic committee” are worryingly ambiguous.

International Support and Potential Developments

Substantial worldwide endorsement for the Palestinian leadership, enabling it to take over from Hamas, is perhaps the most encouraging scenario. The tremendous pain of the previous 24 months means the ethical argument for a resolution to the conflict is possibly more pressing than ever. But although the halt in fighting, the homecoming of the detainees and vow by Hamas to “disarm” Gaza should be acknowledged as favorable developments, Mr Trump’s track record offers minimal cause to trust he will accomplish – or feel bound to endeavor. Temporary ease does not mean that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been moved nearer.