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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.